Very Tight for Connecticut Governor

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds there has been a huge movement in the race for governor over the last month and the race is now a toss up, with Tom Foley (R) inching ahead of Dan Malloy (D), 49% to 47%.

Key finding: “A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days. A month ago Foley’s favorability rating was 41/40 and now it’s almost identical at 41/38. Voters aren’t really warming up to him. But Malloy’s numbers have seen a precipitous drop. At the beginning of the month he posted a stellar 50/29 favorability spread and that’s gone all the way down now to 39/40, a 22 point decline on the margin in just four weeks time.”
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

Tight Race for Minnesota Governor

A new SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota shows a much closer race for governor than many other recent polls: Mark Dayton (D) barely edges Tom Emmer (R), 39% to 38%, with independent candidate Tom Horner (I) at 13%.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

LePage Still Leading for Maine Governor

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maine finds Paul LePage (R) leading independent Eliot Cutler (I), 40% to 28%, with Libby Mitchell (D) at 24%.

Key finding: “What’s most remarkable about LePage’s likely victory is that it comes despite the fact that a majority of Maine voters don’t like him. 51% of them have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 42% who see him in a positive light. But because he has a relatively unified conservative base while Democratic leaning voters are splitting almost evenly between Mitchell and Cutler he’s in a position to win without coming anywhere close to 50% of the vote.”
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

Sinks Leads Close Race for Florida Governor

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Alex Sink leading Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor by three points, 46% to 43% with 7% still undecided and 4% supporting another candidate.

Said pollster Brad Coker: “Without a doubt, the major reason that Scott is running behind other strong GOP candidates this cycle is that a majority of Florida voters have a negative opinion of him. If Scott wins, it will be one of the very, very rare instances where a candidate with a negative rating above 50 percent was able to prevail.”

A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today found Sink with a four point lead.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

Race for Connecticut Governor Dead Even

A new CT Capitol Report/Merriman River Group poll in Connecticut finds Dan Malloy (D) and Tom Foley (R) deadlocked in the race for governor at 45% each.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

CNN/Time Poll: Democrats on top in California governor and Senate contests

(CNN) – A new survey indicates that the Democrats have slight advantages in the California battles for senator and governor.

According to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, 50 percent of likely voters in the Golden State say they support Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, with 45 percent backing Republican challenger Carly Fiorina and four percent undecided or backing a different candidate. Boxer’s five point margin is within the survey’s sampling error and is down from a nine point advantage in CNN/Time polling from last month.

Full results (pdf)

Most other polls released over the past two weeks also indicate the three term senator holding a single digit advantage over Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard CEO.

According to the CNN/Time survey, Boxer leads 90 to 6 percent among Democrats while Fiorina leads 97 to 3 percent among Republicans and holds a 49 to 41 percent advantage over Boxer among independent voters.

“Boxer racks up big margins in Los Angeles County and her home territory in the Bay Area,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Fiorina has an edge in the rest of Southern California and in the Central Valley. The factor that may put Boxer over the top is her 12-point lead among women.”

In a sign that enthusiasm for voting appears to be on the Republican side, when expanded from those likely to vote to the larger sample of all registered voters, Boxer’s five point advantage jumps to a 16 point lead.

According to the poll, California Attorney General and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown holds a seven point lead over Meg Whitman, the Republican nominee. Fifty-one percent of likely voters say they support Brown with 44 percent saying they back Whitman, the former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and a billionaire who’s contributed more than $ 120 million of her own money on her bid for governor.

Brown’s seven point advantage is at the edge of the poll’s sampling error and compares to a nine point lead in late September. Most other surveys out in the past two weeks indicate a large single digit margin for Brown, who served two terms as California governor in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

According to the CNN/Time poll, Brown leads 88 to 8 percent among Democrats while Fiorina leads 93 to 5 percent among Republicans and holds a 48 to 45 percent margin among independent voters.

“Geographically, Brown has the same strengths and weaknesses as Boxer – a strong showing in L.A. and the Bay Area, and a deficit in Southern California and the Central Valley,” says Holland. “And despite the fact that Brown is running against a woman, he appears to be doing slightly better among female voters than Boxer, with a 14-point margin in that key group.”

Brown’s seven point advantage among likely voters jumps to a 56 to 38 percent lead among the larger sampling of registered voters.

The poll indicates that by a 53 to 45 percent margin, likely voters are opposed to California’s proposition to legalize marijuana.

“Legalizing marijuana has opened a big generation gap in the Golden State,” says Holland. “Nearly six in ten voters under the age of 50 support Proposition 19 while six in ten older voters oppose it. Among senior citizens, support drops to just 33 percent.”
Proponents of Prop 19 say it would generate much needed revenue and cut drug enforcement costs. The California Attorney General’s office estimated that the measure has the potential to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars annually in taxes and fees, while saving the state tens of millions of dollars annually on costs related to incarceration and supervision of marijuana offenders.

President Barack Obama campaigned for Boxer and Brown last week. The poll indicates that 48 percent of likely voters approve of the job Obama’s doing as president, with 47 percent disapproving. Among all adults, Obama’s approval rating jumps to 54 percent, with 37 percent saying they disapprove of how he’s handling his duties.

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted October 20-26, with 1,527 adults in California questioned by telephone, including 1,329 registered voters and 888 likely voters. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN

CNN Political Ticker

Fallin Way Ahead for Oklahoma Governor

A new Oklahoma Poll shows Mary Fallin (R) maintains a comfortable lead over Jari Askins (D) heading into the final week of the gubernatorial campaign, 56% to 38%.

A similar poll in July had Fallin leading by just six points.

Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

Oregon Race for Governor Remains Tight

A Hibbitts, Davis & Midghall poll in Oregon finds Chris Dudley (R) narrowly leads former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) in the race for governor, 46% to 43% with 10% still undecided.

Said pollster Tim Hibbitts: “What it tells me is it’s a very close race. It has been a very close race for four and a half months. If the next poll comes up with Kitzhaber up by a point or two, I will not be surprised.”
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

Louisiana Lieutenant Governor Switches Parties

Louisiana Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle said that he has changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican because of his dissatisfaction with President Obama and the administration’s recent actions on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

N.J. Governor Chris Christie Speaks Out About The Teachers Unions..Again

The Teachers Unions displayed their arrogance and Governor Chris Christie responds:

Gov. Chris Christie comments on ‘teachers unions gone wild’