Exit polls claim deficit a top priority; why that’s wrong
Ben Somberg writes:
Wanted to flag this because I know you’ve written on public opinion on deficits. This got some press in the last couple days — that the official exit poll found that the deficit is a bigger priority than jobs or the economy generally. Sure enough, it’s nonsense. I [Somberg] show why the question asked was nonsense and how in fact a wave of polls just days earlier showed the usual — that deficits aren’t a top public priority.
Here are some details:
The polling has bopped around a bit here or there over the last year, but no matter how the pollsters ask the question — and no matter how much deficit hyping there is in the press — people rank the economy and jobs as higher concerns than the deficit. There was actually a new wave of polling on this just before the election, in fact, asking people for their top priorities:
* USA Today / Gallup: “passing new stimulus bill” (38%), “cutting federal spending” (24%), “repealing health care law” (23%), “extending all income tax cuts (8%)
* Reuters / Ipsos: 72% say jobs are “crucial” focus, 25% say they are “important”; 57% say the budget deficit is “crucial” focus, 38% say “important”
* CNN / Opinion Research: “economy” (58%), “the federal budget deficit” (8%), “education” (8%), “health care” (8%), the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (8%), “illegal immigration” (8%) — and other topics get smaller amounts
* Pew: “the job situation” (39%), “health care” (25%), “the deficit” (17%), and it drops off to 6% and below after that
But now in the past day and a half there’s been some attention to a stunning outlier on the question, from the national exit polling data from Tuesday. The exit poll seems to say that 39% see the deficit as the top priority for the new Congress, while only 37% said spending to create jobs is most important.
It’s gotten some attention. See, for example: Liz Sidoti of AP, Jackie Calmes and Megan Thee-Brenan of the NYT, Kyle Dropp of the Washington Post, Gerald Seid of WSJ, Elizabeth Williamson of the WSJ, ABCNews.com, Jill Lawrence of Politics Daily, Judy Woodruff on the PBS Newshour and John Dickerson of Slate.
But what did the exit poll actually ask? I mean, did public opinion on the importance of deficit vs. jobs and the economy really make a huge, historic shift in a matter of days?
The national exit polling asked two ‘priorities’ questions.
“Most Important Issue Facing Country Today” got:
Economy (62%)
Health Care (18%)
War in Afghanistan (8%)
Illegal Immigration (8%)
It appears those were the only options, which makes it not very useful.Then there was the “Highest Priority for Next Congress” question, which got:
Reducing Deficit (39%)
Spending to Create Jobs (37%)
Cutting Taxes (19%)
This time, only three choices!It seems the “Jobs” option was saddled with “spending to create.” Yet “Reducing Deficit” was not saddled with “by increasing taxes to raise money” or “by cutting spending on government programs.”
I see I’m not the first to note the questionable setup of this question. The WSJ’s David Wessel explains: “One inelegantly phrased exit poll Tuesday found 45% favored tax cuts or spending increases to help the economy while 39% made reducing the deficit a higher priority (which, except to some economic alchemists, means tax increases and spending cuts.)”
Also, Ed Kilgore at TNR notes the “rather limited choice” presented in the question and Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic seems to be tweaking the setup a bit as well.
In sum, it’s rather doubtful that a massive shift — in under a week- of public opinion occurred on the importance of the deficit. But that’s what any news organization that hyped the national exit poll’s 39% figure implicitly conveys.
These news organization should go back and look at the wording of the questions, do some hard thinking about how appropriate the setup was, and tell their audiences about the findings of the four polls in the week before the election that weren’t saddled with a non-nonsensical option list.
Reading the Exit Polls: Today’s Qs for O’s WH — 11/4/10
TAPPER: You have said and the president also suggested that the message of Tuesday’s elections is that the American people want the parties to work together. Where do you get that from? GIBBS: Well, again, I think if you look…
Political Punch
Exit Polls: Republicans set record numbers
Washington (CNN) – The 2010 midterm elections rocked President Obama and the Democrats’ majority in the House of Representatives, but they also shook the electorate in a historic way. Exit polls conducted by CNN reveal big changes for traditional Democratic voters that may signal a shift unlike any we’ve seen before.
This November, less than half of women voters selected Democrats for Congress, 49 percent, and 48 percent broke for Republicans. This ties 2002 as the lowest ever female vote for Democrats. Conversely, the male vote for Republicans was the highest ever. Fifty-six percent of men voted for Republican candidates, setting another record for the GOP. Forty-two percent of men voted for Democrats.
Nationwide, 58 percent of voters 65 and over voted Republican while 40 percent voted Democratic. That’s a new high for Republicans, who can now boast about receiving the highest number of votes from seniors, men, and a new demographic-blue collar voters.
Traditionally, blue collar voters are thought to prefer Democrats. In 2010, this changed, with 62 percent of white non-college graduates voting for Republican candidates and 35 percent choosing Democrats. This is the highest ever blue collar vote for the GOP.
Whether this is a trend that will continue or is simply a one hit wonder for Republicans remains to be seen, but if the Democrats want to be competitive for 2012, it is something worthy of attention.
Exit polls are surveys of a small percentage of voters taken after they leave their voting place. Pollsters use this data to project how all voters or segments of voters side on a particular race or ballot measure.
The Slow Exit
Bernstein notes:
I haven't seen any coverage of this yet, but pending any late news it appears that fewer American troops died in Iraq in … [October] — two — then in any previous month since the war began. There was a lot of skeptical commentary about the end of combat operations a couple months ago, and casualties spiked up a bit in September, but the trend line is clearly down (sixteen American deaths over the last four months, also a new low, compared with 29 the previous four months or 34 for July – October 2009). It's a big deal, and I think underreported, that Barack Obama has stayed on course with withdrawal regardless of what's happening at any particular moment.
Civilian casualties, however, are on the rise again. But Obama is going to get out; and my firm suspicion is that he will be as determined in removing troops from Afghanistan in the last year of his first term.
(Image: Blood-stained glasses are seen at the priest's room in the Sayidat al-Nejat Catholic Cathedral, or Syrian Catholic Church, in central Baghdad on November 3, 2010 after US and Iraqi forces stormed on October 31 the cathedral to free dozens of hostages in an attack claimed by Al-Qaeda gunmen and in which 46 worshippers were killed. By Ahmad al-Rubaye /AFP/Getty Images)
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
Big Journalism Exit Poll: Traditional Marriage Out, Same-Sex Marriage In
Since 2003, the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News have cooperated in the form of the National Election Pool (NEP) to produce one set of nationwide exit poll data. First, representatives from each news organizations form a committee that comes up with the specific question for that cycle’s poll. Then the NEP contracts with Edison Research to conduct the actual polling on Election Day.
In 2008, as they had done in previous cycles, the NEP
This year, however, the NEP did not ask respondents if they were married.
This is not to say that the NEP stopped asking about marriage all together. Instead of asking respondents whether or not they themselves were married, the NEP did
So our media elites do care if same-sex couples can get married, but they do not care if the rest of America is married. Is it just a coincidence that the first year a same-sex marriage question makes it onto the poll the traditional marriage question disappears?
The Foundry: Conservative Policy News.
2010 Exit Polls
Are here.
CBS News Exit Poll Reveals Voters Want Government To Do More
A CBS News exit poll asked NYC-area voters if they thought government should do more, or if it was doing too much. The results: 54% said government should do more; 43% said government was doing too much.
Exit Polls: Enough about the campaign – let’s talk about the campaign
(CNN) – It’s after midnight, which means the 2010 vote is over…and the 2012 race is officially underway.
In exit polls Tuesday, Republicans in three key early-voting states were asked about four of their leading presidential contenders.
In Iowa, it appears Mike Huckabee’s still got a base: the former Arkansas governor is tied with Mitt Romney at 21 percent, with Sarah Palin close behind at 18 percent, and Gingrich nabbing single-digit support.
In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Romney displays his home court advantage: he draws more support, at 39 percent, than the rest of his top rivals combined. Palin once again nabs 18 percent, Huckabee drops to 11 percent, and Gingrich stays in the single digits.
And in the key early-voting state of South Carolina – where Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney both endorsed Gov.-elect Nikki Haley in the GOP primary this year – Palin, Huckabee and Romney are again neck-and-neck. The former Alaska governor has support from 25 percent in Tuesday’s exit poll, followed by Huckabee at 24 and Romney at 20. Newt Gingrich polls at 10 percent.
Exit Polls: Seniors break for the GOP
(CNN) – Midterm voters tend to be older than voters in general. But this year’s midterm voters aren’t just older than the voters who show up when the White House is up for grabs. They’re older than your typical midterm voter, period.
Seniors haven’t made up this big a share of voters since 1994. Twenty-four percent of those who cast ballots this year were over the age of 65 – and their support for Democrats has plummeted. Back in ’94, 48 percent of voters over age 65 backed Democratic candidates. In 2006 and ’08, 49 percent supported the party. This year, that number sank to 39 percent.
Seniors – who say they aren’t fans of the health care bill – have discovered a newfound fondness for the GOP: the Republican Party’s share of the senior vote soared from 48 percent last cycle to 58 percent this year.
The Early Exit Polls: Look, But Ignore
From CNN:
The economy isn’t just the most important issue to voters this year – with unemployment hovering around 9.6 percent, it’s roughly twice as important to them as the other top issues of concern combined, according to early exit polls. Sixty-two percent of voters name the economy as their most important issue this year. Health care ranks a distant second, at 19 percent. Illegal immigration and Afghanistan follow at 8 and 7 percent.
More:
Voters may not be happy with the Democratic Party. But they aren’t too thrilled with the GOP either, according to early exit polls. Democrats have a 10-point favorability gap: 43 percent of voters have a positive opinion of the party, while 53 percent aren’t thrilled. The Republican Party also gets a thumbs-down from 53 percent of the nation’s voters, with just 41 percent saying they’re happy with the GOP.
Nate Silver, who is live-blogging, says these should be mostly ignored:
Whatever these polls say, you should mostly ignore them; early exit polls are not intended to be taken at face value and can even be rather misleading. Here are 10 other reasons to ignore them.
Ambers agrees with Nate.
