Posts Tagged: Trouble

Oct 10

Democrats in Big Trouble with “Likely Voters” in latest Gallup Poll … Double Digit Lead for GOP

There is a storm on the horizon for democrats for the 2010 midterm elections and it is called “LIKELY VOTERS”.

According to the most recent Gallup poll, Republicans have a small lead with registered voters; however, it is the “likely voters” where the GOP has a commanding lead over Democrats. With a high or low voter turnout with likely voters, Republicans have a double digit lead, 13% to 18% lead over Democrats.

YIKES!!! Democrats got an early Halloween present from Gallup and it is frightening, it truly is the scary season.

Isn’t it interesting that the closer we get to the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup is refining their polls to more reflect what should be the outcome of the elections. After all, no polling firm whats to look like a homer and have bad data. They are starting to look at likely vs. the usual registered that they report. Polling data is about who is going to be motivated to vote, not who just might be registered. Many races do not reflect the enthusiasm gap that exists between the GOP and Democrats.

There are going to be a lot of shocked individuals the night of November 2, 2010 as voter enthusiasm will win the day.

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Scared Monkeys

Oct 10

Why Harry Reid is in trouble

Harry Reid is one of the three or four most powerful people in the United States government. But the state he represents isn’t just in a bad recession — it’s in something closer to a depression:

Unemployment in Nevada is now 14.4 percent, the highest in the nation and a stark contrast to the 3.8 percent unemployment rate here just 10 years ago; in Las Vegas, it is 14.7 percent.

Now, I don’t think the unemployment rate in Nevada is Reid’s fault. He didn’t sit Nevada down and tell it to base its economy on a housing bubble. But voters blame their representatives for the economy, and given Reid’s uncommon power, he has fewer excuses than most. The reality is, he’ll need a miracle — or an extremely unelectable opponent — to survive this election.

Nevada - Harry Reid - United States - Sharron Angle - Politics
Ezra Klein

Oct 10

The trouble with Rahm?

Obama campaign blogger Sam Graham-Felsen writes that he’s failed to recapture that energy not because he’s asked too much of his supporters, but because he’s asked too little:

[O]ne reason the White House has struggled is because this kind of approach towards the grassroots hasn’t carried over to the administration. The people on Obama’s 13 million person email list have been asked to sign e-cards for Obama’s birthday and buy souvenir mugs; exactly the kind of "weak tie" activism Gladwell derides in his essay. They could have been asked to take action that requires sacrifice and struggle — like pressuring the Democratic Senators who stood, for so long, in the way of passing health care reform. Instead, they’ve been told to voice soft, inoffensive support for Obama’s initiatives, to essentially keep quiet while the President’s inner circle negotiates with Congress behind closed doors.

Presumably, this approach to the grassroots is coming from the top. This is why the news of Rahm Emanuel’s departure — and perhaps more significantly, David Plouffe’s possible entry into the White House - could be an opening for a return to the grassroots strategy we saw on the campaign. Plouffe understood what Gladwell doesn’t: that technology can be used to strengthen real-world ties, organize people to do real things, and empower people to create meaningful change.

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Ben Smith’s Blog

Oct 10

Is LePage In Trouble In Maine?

For Republican gubernatorial nominee Paul LePage (R), the last month has not been lacking in media exposure. The mayor of Waterville, whose recent controversial comments and actions have repeatedly made the rounds in both state and national media circles, finds himself in a suddenly tightening race, as recent poll numbers raise the question of whether his outspoken style is proving to be a liability.

A Tea Party favorite with a compelling personal narrative, the outspoken LePage surged to victory in a crowded Republican primary and began the general election in a good position, sporting an early lead over Democratic rival and former state House Speaker Libby Mitchell.

But in early Sept., video of LePage storming out of a press conference and addressing a reporter in profane language was widely covered, sparking criticism from opponents. Earlier this week, a new video emerged, in which LePage said he would tell Pres. Obama to “go to hell” if elected governor.

“As your governor, you’re going to be seeing a lot of me on the front page, saying ‘Governor LePage tells Obama to go to hell,’” LePage told a group of fisherman at Republican forum on Sunday.

Opponents once again pounced on LePage’s comments. “Mr. LePage’s comments about the president and the threats he directed at a reporter have no place in this campaign or the state of Maine,” said Mitchell, in a statement.

“Am I politically correct all the time? No. Maybe it’s time to have people say bluntly what’s going on,” LePage told AP on Wednesday. “The fact of the matter is that I haven’t learned how to speak out of both sides of my mouth yet.”

Hotline On Call

Oct 10

The trouble with Minnesota, cont’d


Democratic enthusiasm appears to be waning nationally. According to polls published by the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Minnesota Public Radio, however, Minnesota Democrats are bucking the trend. These polls show Democrats enjoying a significant advantage over Republicans among likely voters. The MPR/Humphrey Institute poll released this week showed the Democratic share of likely voters to be an astounding 48 percent (with Republicans at 38 percent). In 2008, exit polls reflected a partisan breakdown in Minnesota of 40 percent Democrats and 36 percent Republicans. So I question the validity of the MPR/Humprey Institute poll sample, but we’ll see.

In my post noting the MPR/Humphrey Institute poll, I noted the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton is an obviously troubled man. By Dayton’s own account, he is under treatment for depression. He certainly appears to be medicated. By Dayton’s own account, he is also an alcoholic who relapsed only a few years ago during his tenure in office as a United States Senator. I argued that before Minnesotans are presented with the choice of voting for Mark Dayton to hold another high office — this one with serious executive responsibilities — someone who covers politics for a living really should ask Dayton to disclose his medical records.

One intrepid Power Line reader forwarded my comments to a prominent Twin Cities reporter who answers to my description; he covers politics for a living. Should someone who covers politics for a living ask….? This was the reporter’s somewhat telegraphic response:

Very interesting, and compelling questions:

Should someone who “appears to be medicated” be treated differently?

And is a recovering alcoholic disqualified from office or subject to tougher scrutiny?

If so, many politicians I cover fall under one or both of those categories.

Nevertheless, we’ve reported Dayton’s personal revelations, though not as frequently as his critics would like, and his opponents won’t touch it.

It’s a sensitive topic, and a serious one, but it raises many equal and opposing issues:

Should the same be asked of Tom Emmer, after two DWI arrests [Ed.: upwards of 20 years ago]?

Should all the candidates release their personal medical records, including psychological and marriage counseling?

How about extra-marital affairs, and drug use?


At a minimum. they refuse to release their client lists and tax returns- which arguably could
have a greater impact on how they govern than their personal struggles.

Bottom line: I’m in favor of transparency, for all.

Well, you get the idea. He misses the point just about entirely, as one deduces from his detour into marital counseling and abortions. Short version: No, he won’t be asking for a review of Dayton’s medical records, but for the very best of reasons, or something like that.

Power Line

Sep 10

Trouble right here in Minnesota


Yesterday I questioned the accuracy of the Star Tribune’s current Minnesota Poll showing Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer 39-30 percent. Today Minnesota Public Radio on its joint MPR/Humphrey Institute Poll showing Dayton leading Emmer by 38-27 percent. The poll results reflect likely voters; MPR’s description of the poll sample and methodology is here. The MPR/Humphrey Institute poll adds a footnote that belies my post yesterday on the current Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Mark Dayton is Minnesota’s contribution to the psychiatric profession. When he last spoke about it publicly, he was under treatment for depression and certainly appears to be medicated. He is an alcoholic who relapsed only a few years ago during his last year in office as a United States Senator. Before Minnesotans are presented with the choice of voting for Mark Dayton to hold another high office — this one with serious executive responsibilities — someone who covers politics for a living really should ask Dayton to disclose his medical records.

Power Line

Sep 10

The Most Obnoxious Dem in Congress in Trouble

Call it karma
American Thinker Blog

Sep 10

Starting Lineup: Midwest Trouble For Dems

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What we’re watching today: 5 NRCC internal polls obtained by Hotline On Call show Democrats in big trouble in contested Midwest House races, Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) surges in Maryland and Pres. Obama continues his economic tour.

Dem Midwest Trouble: New polling out of the Midwest commissioned by the NRCC shows Democrats facing sizable deficits in competitive races so far.

In 4 targeted districts, the Democrat in the race is trailing by double digits. And Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. (It’s no coincidence the DCCC reserved air time Tuesday in his district.)

Like all partisan polls, the NRCC surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. These numbers do, however, mirror national and statewide polls in the region that show Pres. Obama‘s approval rating below 45% and Republicans enjoying a near double digit advantage on the generic ballot.

The polls featuring incumbent Democrats are most striking. In WI 08, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) is trailing roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) 57% to 39% in a On Message poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-16. While Kagen was always seen as a target - the DCCC had reserved time in the Green Bay district — these are miserable numbers for an incumbent.

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents he should be re-elected.

Retiring Rep. David Obey‘s seat in WI 07 has been one of the most targeted races of the cycle so far. Both the NRCC and the DCCC have run ads to boost the campaigns of former “Real World” star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) and state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). The NRCC poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates from Sept. 15-16, shows Duffy holding a commanding 52% to 38% lead over Lassa among 400 likely voters. Those numbers are strikingly different than the internal poll Lassa released Tuesday showing her trailing Duffy 42% to 41%.

Michigan’s 1st District seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D), has also been a target for both parties, as both the NRCC and DCCC have aired ads there. The NRCC survey, conducted by Hill Research Consultants Sept. 19-21, found Republican Dan Benishek leading Democrat Gary McDowell 40% to 24% among 400 likely voters. In this Upper Peninsula district, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56% in the survey.

Lastly in the open seat race for Rep. Brad Ellsworth‘s (D) IN 08, heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) leads state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) leads 41% to 20% in an On Message survey of 400 likely voters. Respondents said they would prefer a Republican on the generic ballot question, 45% to 29% in that poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-14.

All of the surveys had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

O’Malley Opening A Lead: The Maryland governor’s race appears to be defying the national GOP atmosphere, as a new poll shows Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) opening up a double digit lead over former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).

The Washington Post survey out Wednesday shows O’Malley leading Ehrlich 52% to 41%. The last time the Post surveyed the race back in May it was dead even.

The poll shows how difficult it is for a Republican to win statewide in Maryland, a state where President Obama is viewed favorably. Ehrlich has the backing of nearly every Republican in the poll and has a wide lead among independents — 54% to 34%. But he’s got little appeal to Democrats, which make up 57 percent of the state’s electorate.

O’Malley has been steadily climbing in polls since the summer.

Gubernatorial races are more insulated from national congressional trends, and Democrats are counting on the strength of individual candidacies to trump the poor national climate, particularly in states like Georgia, Florida and Texas.,

Hotline On Call

Sep 10

Democrats See Old Bulls In Trouble

House Democrats are going to bat for some of their longest-serving members in new advertisements, a recognition that longevity in DC has put veteran committee chairmen in serious danger of losing their seats.

The DCCC will begin advertising on behalf of Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), John Spratt (D-SC) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), according to a source briefed on the committee’s plans.

None of those decisions will surprise political observers. Skelton, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, and Spratt, who chairs the Budget panel, have been Republican targets virtually from the beginning of the cycle. Kanjorski, who chairs a major Financial Services subcommittee, faced a nail-bitingly close election in 2008 and is running against the same candidate in a much more Republican-friendly environment.

Those 3 districts are just a part of the DCCC’s new round of ad buys. In total, the committee will launch new spots in a dozen new seats, including an open contest in West Virginia where Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) lost in a primary, open seats held by retiring Reps. Marion Berry (D-AR) and Brian Baird (D-WA) and a GOP-held seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL).

The DCCC will also begin running ads defending Reps. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Frank Kratovil (D-MD) and Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA).

Hotline On Call

Sep 10

Poll Watch: Dems in trouble in Pennsylvania

(CNN) - A new Pennsylvania Senate poll shows what several others have already confirmed: Democrats are in trouble in the Keystone state.

The latest survey from Muhlenberg College shows former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey with a seven-point lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak among likely voters, 46 to 39 percent.

Toomey’s lead spread is consistent with several recent polls, including one from CNN and Time Magazine.

The Muhlenberg College survey also has bad news for President Obama. The president’s approval rating in this key swing state now stands at an anemic 37 percent. Obama carried Pennsylvania in 2008 by 11 points, 55 to 44 percent.

The Muhlenberg poll, conducted September 18-23, surveyed 445 likely voters by telephone and carries a sampling error of plus or minus five percent.

CNN Political Ticker