67% Of Registered Voters Say Sarah Palin Unqualified To Be President

October 29, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

While Sarah Palin continues to send out signals that seem to indicate she’s running for President in 2012, the vast majority of American voters don’t think she’s qualified for the job:

Sarah Palin’s interest in the presidency is not being reciprocated by most Americans: Two-thirds of registered voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say she’s unqualified for the job, and more than half continue to rate her unfavorably overall.

Those results come after Palin, in a television interview this week, said she’d run in 2012 “if there’s nobody else to do it.” That echoed a comment in February, when she said she wouldn’t “close the door that perhaps could be open for me in the future.”

This poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, suggests steep challenges. Palin appears to have gained little luster from the success of the Tea Party political movement with which she’d aligned: Just 39 percent of registered voters see her favorably, the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity. That’s essentially the same as her lows, 37 percent, last winter and spring.

Even fewer, just 27 percent, see her as qualified for the presidency, also essentially unchanged. Sixty-seven percent say she’s not qualified; this peaked at 71 percent in February.

While there are political and ideological divides on Palin, she faces hurdles across the board. Even in her own party, Republicans divide, 47 percent to 46 percent, on whether she’s qualified or unqualified to serve as president. Conservatives split, 45-48 percent, as do Tea Party supporters, 48-48 percent.

In only two groups do majorities see Palin as qualified - conservative Republicans, by 55-40 percent; and “strong” supporters of the Tea Party movement, by a broad 73-22 percent. (They’re a small group, one in 10 registered voters.)

While 82 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of liberals see her as unqualified, as do 70 percent of swing-voting independents and 77 percent of self-described political moderates.

These are extraordinary numbers to see regarding someone that people still regard as a serious player in American politics. I’ve been following politics since the 1980s, and I cannot remember someone who was so wildly unpopular with the general public who still had widespread influence within a major political party.  Dan Quayle had incredibly high negative numbers, but even as Vice-President he was never considered to be a serious voice of influence within the GOP, and when he dipped his toes into the Presidential waters, the GOP greeted his candidacy with a collective shrug.

Not so for Sarah Palin.

Despite the fact that she is viewed negatively by a majority of Americans, she is somehow one of the most popular  leaders in the Republican Party and the conservative political movement. This despite the fact that her political experience consists of a few years as small-town Mayor, a half-term as Governor, and a failed bid for the Vice-Presidency. It’s not what one typically sees from Republicans, who usually rally behind the person with experience and at least some sense of seriousness. With Palin, the lack of experience seems to be a positive for her supporters, and instead of gravitas we have celebrity as evidenced by appearances on reality television and “celebrity” dancing shows. It is the kind of adulation one normally sees attached to a Frank Sinatra or Elvis Presley rather than a Ronald Reagan, and I’m not entirely sure it’s appropriate for politics.

As I’ve said before, a typical politician would look at numbers like these, realize that they can’t win, and decide not to run for the good of their party. Sarah Palin, however, does not think like a typical politician, as Steven Taylor noted just yesterday:

Palin represents the culmination of the rise of partisan (specifically in this case Republican/conservative) media that started in the mid-to-late 1980s and grew up alongside the growth of niche media and the segmentation of news/commentary consumption in the United States because of cable and the internet.   It is possible now to not only get conservative-oriented news and commentary it is possible to get exclusively conservative-oriented news and commentary.  Further, Palin has cleverly exploited long-standing resentments within the public about perceptions of liberal bias in the press.   This is especially true of older voters who remember (and resented) the pre-cable era when all the news came through the Big Three Networks and from anchors who were often believed to have liberal-leaning perspectives.

(…)

If one places oneself in a situation in which one is more likely to be praised than not (not to mention the clamor this election season for her endorsement), then one is likely to take a distorted view of one’s overall popularity (empirical evidence to the contrary be damned, such as a 22% favorable, 48% not favorable rating in a recent poll).  I know people who are convinced that Palin’s national popularity is on the rise despite the aforementioned empirical evidence.  Why do they think this?  It is because the only news that they consume outside of the local newspaper is Fox News Channel, especially its commentary programming.  If viewers think this (and a poll of Fox News consumers would be quite interesting on this count), then it is hardly difficult to see Palin self-deluding on her actual popularity.  Further, it is generically easy for politicians to see themselves from the perspective of their more ardent supporters rather than from the POV of the broader public.

This is why I think that not only will Palin run for President in 2012, but that she stands a better-than-most-expect chance of winning the GOP nomination. Unless the nation plunges into a deep recession just prior to the 2012 elections, this would virtually guarantee the re-election of Barack Obama and could quite possibly lead to a disaster down-ticket for the GOP just two years after their 2010 triumph. It would be a suicide mission, but it would be exactly what you’d expect from someone at the center of a cult of personality.




Outside the Beltway

Why Woodward is a registered Democrat…and doesn’t Tweet

October 10, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

(CNN) - Author and journalist Bob Woodward says he wants to teach his daughter about the electoral process, and that’s why he is a registered Democrat in the District of Columbia.

CNN’s Howard Kurtz of Reliable Sources inquired about Woodward’s political registration because of recent comments Woodward made on C-SPAN where he said he was a registered Democrat, but acted as a political independent.

“I take my daughter to vote,” Woodward told Kurtz on Reliable Sources. “She decides, she’s empowered, and that’s the main reason.”

Woodward pointed to Washington’s heavily Democratic voter population when prompted about why he didn’t register as an independent.

“It’s meaningless because the Democratic party, if you win the primary, that’s the end,” Woodward said. “So you would disenfranchise my young 14-year-old daughter,” he said jokingly.

Woodward also addressed his absence on Twitter, which many journalists now frequently use.

“I’m not sure what it is,” he said. “Part of my problem with the media…is the impatience of speed which drives everything. As you know, I do long form. On Twitter, you can do 140 characters.”


CNN Political Ticker

Poll Watch: Difference between likely voters and registered voters key

October 5, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

(CNN) - Only weeks before Election Day, a new poll shows victory likely hinges on the separation of views between registered voters and those likely to actually travel to the polls, especially on topics like Congress, candidates, and the economy.

The ABC/Washington Post poll finds among all registered voters, more prefer Democratic congressional candidates. But the GOP benefits from an active base, as 77 percent of Republicans state they are absolutely certain to vote on Election Day, while only 61 percent of Democrats say the same, a telling spread of sixteen points. This is a bigger GOP lead than in 1994, the last time Republicans wrested control of Congress from Democrats.


Likely voters now break for Republicans 49-43 percent in their district. However, the gap between the two parties is closing as 53 percent of likely voters said they’d vote Republican last month and 40 percent stated they’d vote Democratic. Last month the gap was thirteen points wide, now it has shrunk to six.

Independent likely voters favor GOP candidates 53 to 33 percent according to the poll. But Republicans cannot bank all hopes on their 20-point advantage over Democrats among independent likely voters either, as this is the fickle group that is harder to lure to the polls on Election Day.

The ABC/Washington post poll depicts the economy as a lightning rod for candidate choice this fall. Three-quarters of likely voters who say the economy is improving favor Democrats. Seventy percent of those who say the economy is getting worse favor Republican candidates, as do 52 percent of those who believe it has stayed the same. But more likely voters say the economy is improving this month by 7 points (31 percent versus 24 percent in September) and fewer likely voters say the economy is getting worse; showing that overall voters’ view of the economy is improving.

The poll also highlights voter sentiments about the Tea Party and its possible impact on mid-term elections. Though July’s survey results showed that 30 percent of voters were more apt to support a Tea Party-affiliated candidate, today that number has dropped to 18 percent. In fact, now 28 percent of registered voters are more likely to oppose a Tea Party candidate for Congress. Of those who support them, Tea Party candidates find loyal voters, as 92 percent say they’re certain to vote next month.

When it comes to loyalty the ABC/Washington post poll reflects that voter views are conflicting this fall. Fifty-one percent of registered voters state they approve of their own congressman’s performance, but only 31 percent say they’re inclined to re-elect their representative. Instead, 55 percent are inclined to take a look at someone else, a number that holds true for likely voters as well. This is lower than the amount who considered voting for another candidate in 1994, the last time the GOP took control of Congress.

At that time, 34 percent of voters stated they’d vote for an incumbent, while 58 percent they’d look around for a replacement. If they’re looking for a candidate that matches their ideology, less than half of registered voters say they will be satisfied. Overall, fewer than half of voters think Democrats are either too liberal or too conservative, as well as Tea Party candidates (48 percent) while more than half call the GOP either too liberal or too conservative (53 percent).

President Obama’s performance is also up for question in the ABC/Washington Post survey. Fifty percent of Americans approve of his job performance while 47 percent disapprove. When it comes to health care reform voters are virtually split with 47 percent supporting the new measure and 48 percent opposing it.

Those who dislike healthcare reform dislike it passionately: 77 percent would like to see it canceled in Congress or through the courts. Registered voters also believe that a GOP-led Congress would take the country in a new direction rather than return to President Bush’s policies by 49 to 42 percent.

Candidates may still have a chance to influence voters according to the survey, as 71 percent are closely following the election, according to the survey. The ABC News/Washington Poll was conducted by telephone September 30-October 3, 2010 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3.5-point margin of error.


CNN Political Ticker

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