What happened in Nevada?

November 4, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

(Paul)

Looking at the vote in Nevada on a county-by-county basis, I am struck by how poorly Sharron Angle did. The Republican congressional candidates (there were three of them) ran ahead of Angle in all 17 Nevada counties, usually by a considerable margin.

Consider Washoe County, the state’s second most populous. Republican Dean Heller trounced Democrat Nancy Price 80,055 to 51,571. Yet Angle lost the county to Reid, 70,263 to 63,216. In Carson City, Heller defeated Price by margin of more than 2-1. Angle, though, could only edge Reid by a margin of 9,352 to 8,714.

Expecting Angle to match Heller, a popular Republican incumbent, vote-for-vote is unfair. But consider Clark County. The vast majority of voters there were represented by one of two Democratic incumbents - Dina Titus (who lost on Tuesday) and long-serving, popular Shelly Berkley. Reid outpolled Angle in Clark County by approximately 60,000 votes. The Democratic congressional candidates outpolled the Republican candidates by only about 39,000.

By my calculations, Angle could have won the race by matching the Republican congressional candidates in Clark County and reversing the Reid-Angle tally in Washoe County (which still would have left her 10,000 votes behind Heller’s performance there). And that’s without any changes in the other 15 counties where Angle underperformed (often substantially) in comparison to the congressional vote. In fact, matching the congressional result in Clark County would have been nearly enough, by itself, to knock off the Senate Majority Leader.

Most conservatives, including me, were overly optimistic about Republican chances in the Senate. This was due, I think, to our understanding that this was a wave election and our faith that the Senate vote would pretty fully reflect the wave.

It didn’t in Nevada. The reason can be debated. The possibility that the Republicans nominated a much less than optimal candidate cannot be dismissed.




Power Line

Stark contrast in Nevada headquarters

November 3, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

Las Vegas, Nevada (CNN) - The ballroom at Harry Reid headquarters at the Aria Hotel cheered as returns kept showing him throughout the nation with a healthy margin over Sharron Angle. They erupted in cheers and applause when the television networks started calling the race for the Senate Majority Leader - a call that came much earlier than many thought.

Meanwhile the mood at his Republican opponent’s headquarters at the Venetian Hotel was more quiet, somber as with many in attendance in shock as polls showed Angle with a small lead going into the election.

Both candidates watched the returns from hotel suites. Neither allowed a photo opportunity with them.

- Producer Jennifer Wysocki contributed to this story.


CNN Political Ticker

Stark contrast in Nevada headquarters

November 3, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

Las Vegas, Nevada (CNN) - The ballroom at Harry Reid headquarters at the Aria Hotel cheered as returns kept showing him throughout the nation with a healthy margin over Sharron Angle. They erupted in cheers and applause when the television networks started calling the race for the Senate Majority Leader - a call that came much earlier than many thought.

Meanwhile the mood at his Republican opponent’s headquarters at the Venetian Hotel was more quiet, somber as with many in attendance in shock as polls showed Angle with a small lead going into the election.

Both candidates watched the returns from hotel suites. Neither allowed a photo opportunity with them.

- Producer Jennifer Wysocki contributed to this story.


CNN Political Ticker

Majority Leader Harry Reid Re-Elected in Nevada

November 3, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

Big win for the Dems, but is it enough save face?

reid



Big Government

In Nevada: CNN projects Democratic Sen. win

November 3, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

(CNN) - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has defeated Tea Party-backed Republican nominee Sharron Angle in Nevada’s Senate race, CNN projects. Projections are based on CNN analysis of exit poll data.


CNN Political Ticker

Frank Luntz Predicts Harry Reid Will Win in Nevada

November 2, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

From Politico:

GOP polling guru Frank Luntz is predicting Republicans will win seven Senate seats and 50 House spots, based on exit polls he had seen. On a conference call with associates from K Street, Luntz also said he thinks Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will win reelection.


The Moderate Voice

Both sides ready for possible late night in high-stakes Nevada Senate showdown

November 2, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

Las Vegas, Nevada (CNN) - With both campaigns and political parties mounting efforts to get out as many voters as possible on Tuesday, Democratic incumbent Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada and Republican challenger Sharron Angle are preparing for what could be a very late night to decide who is the victor in the high-stakes battle for the Senate seat.

The contest is one of the most closely watched Senate races in the nation and could decide which party controls it.

With polls showing the contest a virtual dead heat, both sides say the outcome could be decided by a very narrow margin.

The campaigns, party groups and outside organizations have battled over the airwaves, running a seemingly continuous series of ads attacking the other candidate. Some estimates put the amount spent on the race at $ 50 million.

On the day before the election, Reid and Angle chose markedly different approaches.

But the message from both was essentially the same: The race is close, don’t take anything for granted and go to the polls.

Reid, fighting for his political survival, brought in first lady Michelle Obama for a high-energy, high-profile, get-out-the-vote rally Monday.

“We are heading into that final round - it is right before us,” Reid, a former boxer, told the crowd. “Let’s take no chances.”

“I am not finished fighting,” he told the crowd, adding that he has battled his entire life. “I am not finished fighting for jobs … or keeping Nevadans in their homes or to protect Social Security.”

The longtime senator is facing an uphill climb partly because of the state’s dire economic picture - it has the nation’s highest unemployment rate at 14.4 percent, as well as the highest foreclosure rate.

Reid pointed out some of his accomplishments as Senate majority leader, saying he would do more to help create jobs.

The first lady called him a strong leader.

“Because of leaders like Harry, so much has been accomplished in such a short period of time,” Michelle Obama said, while transitioning into a strong defense of her husband’s record.

“Barack knows too many folks are out of work right now,” she said, noting that his administration has cut taxes for middle-class families and small businesses - more than most people realize, she added.

Acknowledging the frustration across the country, Obama urged audience members to show their support for the administration.

“This election is not just about what we have accomplished, but what we have left to do,” Obama said. She also asked for patience, saying her husband’s election was not a single event but “was about building a movement for change.”

Angle chose a more low-key approach, dropping by a senior center for lunch and a Reno restaurant to chat with voters, according to the campaign. Reporters were not invited to see her at either stop.

She also did a series of television and radio interviews, including talks with conservative talk show hosts Dennis Miller, Hugh Hewitt, Lars Larson and Mark Levin. Angle participated as well in a tele-town hall meeting with Sen. John McCain, who campaigned with her at a rally Friday in Nevada.

“I’m very cautiously optimistic,” she told Fox News Monday night. “It’s one of those things that we don’t try to even forecast until we get all of the results in. So we are eager to have everyone get out and vote.”

Angle went after Reid over the state’s economy, saying he hasn’t done enough to help repair it.

“Certainly we do hold him responsible here in Nevada. When he went in as senate majority leader, we were at 4.4 percent unemployment and now … we are at 14.4 percent unemployment,” she said in a television interview. “But when you put in the underemployed and those who have quit looking for jobs, we are really a 22.3 percent unemployment. And we lay those (figures) squarely at Harry Reid’s doorstep.”

Reid attacked Angle as an extremist, much as his campaign has done since she won a June primary in an upset victory largely due to support from Tea Party activists.


CNN Political Ticker

Who’s winning in Nevada? The Reid v. Angle math

November 1, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

(CNN) - Wondering what to watch for in the early Nevada returns? Well the campaigns have already begun spinning the numbers. Here are the Democrats and Republicans takes on where things stand.

First the facts: According to Nevada elections officials, 65 percent of everyone who will vote in this election has already done so, either by early voting or mail-in ballot. More Democrats voted early than Republicans, but keep in mind, there are more registered Democrats in the state.

That’s where the agreement ends.

Here’s what supporters of Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle will tell you.

Republicans say about 10,000 more Democrats voted early than Republicans - but it’s not enough to deliver Reid a victory. Why? Because 44 percent of all registered voters are Democrats, but they cast only 43.5 percent of all early votes. So those pulling for Angle say Democrats “under performed” by .5 percent (The math: 44-43.5 = 0.5%). In contrast, 41 percent of all early voters were Republicans, and Republicans make up 35 percent of all registered voters. Therefore, the GOP says, Nevada Republicans “over performed” by 6.0 percent (The math: 41-35 = 6%). They say this shows a significant enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, and it will only get bigger on Tuesday. That’s because historically, Nevada Republicans are more likely to turn out on Election Day, and they say this year certainly will be no exception.

It’s no surprise the Democrats crunch the numbers very differently and after early voting they see no enthusiasm gap.

This is how the Democrats do the math: They found 38 percent of all Republicans eligible to vote have already cast a ballot. Compare that to Democrats’ turnout: 34.6 percent of all eligible Democrats already voted. The difference between the two numbers - which they call the “turnout advantage” - is just under 3.5 percent. Democrats say if this were a Republican wave election that Republican turnout advantage would be bigger. They point out that in 2006 - the last midterm election - Republicans had a 6 percent turnout advantage and that year Republicans did not do well on Election Day.

The Democrats also point out that Republicans normally get an Election Day bump from rural voters. But this year rural Nevadans participated in early voting at a much higher than usual rate. Democrats are betting voting patterns won’t be that different on Tuesday than they were in the overall early balloting, meaning no Republican surge at the polling places.

The Democrats conclusion: they’re in good shape to win.

So what should you believe? Nevada’s veteran political reporter Jon Ralston agrees the early vote does not reflect a huge Republican surge. In a blog post over the weekend he concluded, “Harry Reid has a chance to win if that overall edge stays below the historical 6 percent edge the GOP has in midterms.” Ralston is predicting a Reid victory writing, “all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.”

But there’s the rub. What these numbers don’t reflect is the independent vote. Republicans think Angle will win 6 out of 10 independents, enough to give her a victory. Democrats say their internal polling shows Reid is doing just fine among independents, and that he will hold his advantage. But, don’t forget in Nevada there are other candidates on the ballot - and the final complicating factor: voters have the option of picking “None of the Above.”

Bottom line it’s going to be a late night on Tuesday.


CNN Political Ticker

2010 Nevada US Senate Election: Sharron Angle’s Closing Argument … “Now It’s Our Turn”

November 1, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

Two days to go before the 2010 midterm elections and Republican US Senate candidate Sharron Angle as her closing argument for the people of Nevada. It’s your turn Nevada to go to the election polls and make a difference.

Angle’s powerful closing argument against Harry Reid and for the people … “They promised you change, but they delivered unprecedented spending, overwhelming debt, heartbreaking job loss, astounding foreclosures, skyrocketing bankruptcies … NOW IT’S YOUR TURN!”

 

Sharron Angle presently leads by 4% in Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and CNNpolls. Send Harry reid into retirement this Tuesday and make some real change that is good for Nevada and America.

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Scared Monkeys

Nevada Democrat Base Voters Launch Anti-Reid Commercial

October 30, 2010 · Posted in The Capitol · Comment 

From the Washington Times:

Things in Nevada are getting hotter. Not content with the direction the country and their home state is going in, a group of Nevada voters calling themselves “Concerned Nevadans That Care About Our Country” will launch an anti-Harry Reid ad this evening.

Members of this group represent those from traditional Democratic coalitions and base demographics, like: African-Americans, Latinos, and union members.

In the ad, these individuals urge Democratic Nevada voters to break away from their practice of supporting liberals like Harry Reid.

In fact, the ad goes one step further and looks to draw in union members who are disgruntled with union leadership’s pro-amnesty policies.

Here are a few remarks that were planned to be part of the ad:

“Union Leaders are betraying their members by endorsing Reid and Extreme Liberal Policies”

“Unions are recruiting illegals and paying them 1/3 the union wage for union jobs”

“These practices exploit illegals, while simultaneously denying Americans jobs”

“Progressives like to exploit racial division for political advantage”

“I even a got a contract that’s a local 844 agreement where our general president and all these people deliberately kept the Hispanics out of this meeting, because what they wanted to do was to negotiate contractors for $ 11.96 an hour versus $ 37, and they did,” said Darrin Oglesbee (shown in the ad), of Iron Workers Local 416 in Las Vegas, during an interview with me on Monday.

“Here’s the kicker, their union dues, are the same as mine. The international is going to get their money, but [say] ‘sorry we short-changed you on your money there, buddy,’“ he said.

The union member presence in the ad is a potent weapon given membership is currently struggling with its leaders over policy from card check legislation to immigration reform. Union bosses are likely feeling uneasy about membership anger over job losses and union demands from the members.

A recent Water Cooler post of mine noted that union leadership could not get a guarantee that their members will vote the way the leadership wants them too. Union leadership may already be trying to quash rebellious behavior

Reno Nevada Union member Babette Rutherford already filed a complaint citing voter intimidation and bribery among other accusations toward union officials According to the complaint (h/t ATR):

“…voter intimidation, coercion, bribery, undue influence, and violations of the rules governing poll watchers.” In her complaint filed with the Nevada Secretary of State, Rutherford highlights three early voting stations where unions bussed workers to the polls and proceeded to “escort” and “watch” members vote. At the Boulevard Mall, Las Vegas early voting station, the registered poll watchers questioned the legality of the occurrences only to be told by the Election Board Team Leader that “union personnel were watching members vote because that’s the ‘whole point’ of busing them there.”

Read the whole thing here.


Big Government

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